Latvia's 15th Saeima election: United List set for clear win, Greens/Farmers risk missing threshold
With more than 90% of votes counted in Latvia's parliamentary election, the United List holds a commanding lead while the Union of Greens and Farmers appears likely to fall short of the 5% threshold. Final results could still shift as vote tabulation continues in several regions.
According to Latvia's election commission data, the United List (AS) is heading toward a decisive victory in the 15th Saeima elections, currently holding around 35% of the vote. If this trend holds, the party could secure roughly 42 of the 100 seats in parliament.
Second and third place
Trailing well behind is Latvia First (LPV) with just over 13% of the vote, followed by Sovereign Power/Union of Latvians (SV/AJ) with nearly 12%, projected to win 17 and 14 seats respectively. The National Alliance (NA) has close to 9% and could claim 11 seats, while the Progressives and New Unity (JV) have gathered about 7.6% and 6.3%, translating into nine and seven mandates.
At the bottom of the table, right at the 5% cutoff, sits the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) with around 4.5% of the vote, meaning the party currently stands to miss out on representation in the new parliament.
Regional breakdown
In the regions of Kurzeme, Latgale and Zemgale, votes from all polling stations have been tallied, though final verification is still underway. In Kurzeme, six of 11 seats currently go to AS, with NA, LPV, SV/AJ, the Progressives and JV each taking one. In Latgale, LPV leads with five of 12 seats, AS and SV/AJ each have three, and NA holds one. In Zemgale, AS currently holds six of 13 seats, LPV and NA two each, and the Progressives, JV and SV/AJ one each.
In Vidzeme, 271 of 273 precincts have reported, with AS currently projected to win 13 of 26 seats, though several races remain extremely tight and could still change. The greatest uncertainty remains in Riga, which allocates the country's largest bloc of 38 seats and where counting is still far from complete in most precincts.
