2026 FIFA World Cup: Which third-place teams will reach the knockout stage?
Eight best third-place teams advance to the knockout stage. So far, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Senegal have secured their spots.
At the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the eight best third-place finishers from the group stage will advance to the round of 32. Already qualified are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Senegal. The final list of advancing third-place teams will be determined after Saturday's matches.
The eight teams are ranked first by points and then by goal difference. US sports publication The Athletic has developed a prediction model based on thousands of tournament simulations. According to the model, third-place teams with four or more points are virtually guaranteed advancement. A third-place team with three points will likely depend on goal difference, while those with two points cannot qualify.
Already qualified
Ecuador (Group E) advanced with four points and a goal difference of zero. They lost their opener to Ivory Coast, drew with Curaçao, but then upset Germany 2-1. The Athletic model predicts Mexico as Ecuador's most likely opponent.
Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group B) advanced after finishing third with four points and a goal difference of -1. They will face the United States on July 1.
Sweden (Group F) qualified with four points and a goal difference of zero. A 1-1 draw with Japan in their final match was enough despite a 5-1 loss to the Netherlands. Likely opponents are France or Norway.
Senegal (Group I) beat Iraq 5-0 in their final match to finish with three points and a goal difference of +2.
Paraguay (Group D) drew 0-0 with Australia to secure four points and a goal difference of -2.
Teams with chances
Group L's third-place team has an 86% chance of advancing. Ghana sits second with four points and a goal difference of +1, while Croatia is third with three points and a goal difference of -1. If Ghana loses to Croatia and falls to third, its four points would still be enough. Croatia has an 86% chance, but a heavy defeat to Ghana could eliminate it.
Group G has a 51% chance. Iran finished third with three points and a goal difference of zero, better than South Korea and Scotland. Iran will be eliminated if Algeria and Austria draw, if DR Congo beats Uzbekistan, and if Croatia gets at least one point against Ghana.
Group K has a 43% chance. Colombia has already qualified. DR Congo is third with one point and a goal difference of -1. A win over Uzbekistan would give it a strong chance. The Athletic gives DR Congo a 42% chance and Uzbekistan only 1%.
Group J has a 42% chance. Argentina is through, Jordan is out. Austria and Algeria meet on Saturday. Austria has an 81% chance of advancing (66% as runner-up, 15% as third). Algeria has a 61% chance (34% runner-up, 27% third). If Algeria loses to Austria, it must avoid a large goal deficit.
Other teams
South Korea (Group A) has three points and a goal difference of -1, with a 50% chance. Scotland (Group C) has three points and a goal difference of -3 after a 3-0 loss to Brazil, and only a 5% chance.
