Oil and gas future dominates Aberdeen South byelection

The Aberdeen South byelection, to be held on Thursday, is dominated by the future of North Sea oil and gas. The contest is shaping up as a direct battle between the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Conservatives.

SNP candidate Richard Thomson, a former MP and council leader, is trying to retain the seat. He says that if you don't work in the energy industry, you know many who do – family and friends. Conservative candidate Douglas Lumsden, who also stood in 2019, predicts significant tactical voting.

The Conservatives, pushed to the right by the rise of Reform UK, are now fundamentalist advocates of maximising oil and gas extraction, arguing it protects jobs and improves energy security. However, experts reject this claim, noting that oil is sold on the open market.

The SNP attempts to balance defending North Sea jobs with promoting renewables. It supports new drilling only if licences pass climate compatibility tests. Thomson argues the Tories are no friends to the oil and gas industry, having introduced the energy profits levy, and that about 70,000 North Sea jobs were lost under their government. Lumsden counters that the SNP voted for that levy, which is now no longer needed.

The election is also overshadowed by the scandal of former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, who embezzled £400,000 from party funds. The SNP says the guilty plea lessens the scandal's impact, but Lumsden argues it undermines the party's trustworthiness.

Although Aberdeen South is relatively prosperous – with average weekly wages of £802 compared to Scotland's £776 and child poverty at 7.8% versus 12.3% – the energy sector is shedding about 1,000 jobs per month. Universal credit claims have risen by 30% since April 2022, with almost 10,000 claimants. House prices have fallen, leaving some in negative equity.

A second byelection in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is considered a safe SNP seat, with no serious challenge from other parties.