Europe could not sustain a war of attrition with Russia, defence officials warn
Defence planners working with Nato warn that Europe's lack of public war readiness means it could not currently sustain a prolonged war of attrition if conflict broke out with Russia. The concern comes amid a populist surge and fears Russia is winning the hybrid war.
Defence planners working alongside Nato have warned that if war broke out with Russia, Europe currently lacks the public readiness to sustain a prolonged war of attrition. The concerns emerged at a forum convened by the Munich Security Conference (MSC) on the future of European military coordination.
The pessimism reflects fears that Russia may be winning a so-called hybrid war against Europe, narrowing the options available to Nato planners in the event of a real conflict. At the same time, a surge in support for populist parties in Europe's major military powers is threatening proposals for a group of five countries, including the UK, to take on a new coordination role as the US prepares to scale back its commitment to conventional European defence.
Officials said the public may lack appetite for a long war, meaning Nato plans should focus on a relatively quick conflict. One former UK cabinet member admitted the west had been poor at explaining the scale of the hybrid threat to the public, while a diplomat described the level of debate as being at "kindergarten" level.
Leipzig incident adds urgency
Urgency was added to the discussion by the German government's accusation this week that Russia was behind an attempted armed-drone attack on Leipzig airport last month. One suspect has reportedly been identified as a Belarusian citizen holding a Russian passport who entered Europe on an Italian tourist visa.
The MSC is promoting closer cooperation among Europe's five leading military powers, including joint procurement of capabilities such as integrated air and missile defence, precision strike and space-based early warning systems currently supplied mostly by the US.
Italy has expressed particular concern about hybrid warfare's impact on its domestic politics ahead of next year's elections. Foreign minister Antonio Tajani warned of daily cyber-attacks and possible Russian election interference, while defence minister Guido Crosetto said Europe lacks "antibodies" against social-media-driven disinformation.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is producing 200,000 drones per month, aiming for more than 7 million by 2026, with around 500 small and medium-sized companies now involved in assembly.
