Analyst: Estonia's presidential election likely to be decided in first round
ERR analyst Tatjana Gasova predicts that Estonia's Riigikogu will elect Ülle Madise as president already in the first round of voting on September 2, given the level of parliamentary support behind her nomination.
Tatjana Gasova, political analyst and head of ERR's Russian-language radio and web news departments, believes Estonia's upcoming presidential election is unlikely to bring surprises. Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise, the only registered candidate, is expected to be elected by the Riigikogu already in the first round of voting on Wednesday, September 2.
Madise's nomination was backed by the signatures of 75 members of parliament, while at least 68 votes are required to elect a president. Gasova noted that signing the nomination document does not legally obligate a lawmaker to vote for the candidate, especially since the vote is secret. Still, she believes the seven-vote margin significantly reduces the chance of an unexpected outcome, and that the existing political arrangement should allow the president to be elected already in the first round.
Party maneuvering
Commenting on Isamaa, some of whose members did not sign the nomination document and have not disclosed how they intend to vote, Gasova described this as political maneuvering tied to the approaching parliamentary elections. She views the Centre Party's behavior similarly. Neither the Centre Party nor EKRE managed to collect the required 21 signatures to register their own candidates, which Gasova said shows they failed to reach agreement with other political forces.
Gasova also pointed to the Centre Party's cooperation with Isamaa at the capital-city level, noting that their lack of agreement on a presidential candidate raises questions about the durability of that political alliance. She did not rule out that some Centre Party members could boycott the Riigikogu session.
The analyst was also skeptical about a proposal to hold early parliamentary elections, saying a major political crisis would be illogical just as the state budget is due for review. Should Madise unexpectedly fail to secure the required 68 votes on September 2, new inter-party negotiations would follow, though Gasova does not expect the election to reach the electoral college stage.
The first round of voting will take place in the Riigikogu on Wednesday, September 2, at 12:00. A candidate needs the support of at least two-thirds of parliament, or 68 votes, to be elected. If no candidate is elected, a second round will be held the following day, September 3.
