UN report: Global warming will exceed 1.5-degree target
A new UN Environment Program report acknowledges that the world will surpass the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit, shifting focus to minimizing how long temperatures stay above that threshold.
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has released a report acknowledging that global temperatures will rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the threshold set by the Paris Agreement as the critical limit to avoid.
Rather than outlining how to stay under that limit, the new "Limiting Overshoot" report instead lays out a strategy for minimizing the amount of time the planet spends above it. This "overshoot, peak and decline" approach would require nations to meet their net-zero greenhouse gas emissions goals while also removing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Carbon removal is framed as an additive measure, not a substitute for reaching net-zero targets.
Experts warn that even a brief period at higher temperatures could trigger catastrophic and increasingly hard-to-reverse consequences.
Call for urgent action
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said there are no good outcomes if the world remains above 1.5°C, noting that extreme heatwaves are already showing climate impacts will strike faster, harder and longer, costing lives and causing greater disruption. She called for doubling down on climate action — cutting emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation — so that any exceedance of 1.5°C is as small and brief as possible.
The shift in messaging marks a departure from the organization's previous stance of urging countries to stay below the 1.5-degree threshold, and reflects how far current efforts fall short of what's needed. This year, both the US and EU governments loosened restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.
