Poll: Latvia's New Unity party teeters on edge of parliamentary threshold

A September survey conducted by Latvijas fakti together with Faktu logs indicates that seven political parties could clear the 5% threshold needed to enter Latvia's parliament in the upcoming Saeima elections. Leading the ratings is the United List, represented by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, with 15.9% support (23.8% among decided voters), a slight increase from 15.6% in August.

Second place went to Latvia First with 8.6%, followed by the Progressives with 8.3% and the Union of Greens and Farmers with 7.1%. All three saw modest gains compared to August. By contrast, support fell for the National Alliance, down from 7.3% in August to 6% in September, and for Sovereign Power/New Latvians, down from 6.3% to 5.9%.

New Unity nears the edge

The steepest decline was recorded for New Unity, whose support dropped from 5.9% in August to 4.2% in September. When recalculated among respondents with a firm party choice, its support stands at 6.2% — technically above the threshold, but reflecting a downward trend.

Among parties that would not enter parliament, Development/For, We Change the Rules, and For Stability each received 2.2% support, Harmony Center 1.8%, while Rising Sun for Latvia, the Gobzems list, and the New Conservative Party each polled at 1% or below.

The survey found that 20% of respondents in September had not yet decided which party to support, while 12.9% said they would not vote at all, compared with 23.1% and 10.7% respectively in August. The September poll surveyed 1,018 Latvian citizens. Saeima elections are scheduled for the first Saturday of October.