US warns Gulf states of possible renewed war with Iran
The US and Israel are preparing a new round of heavy fighting against Iran after the US midterm elections, The Wall Street Journal reports. Arab states in the Persian Gulf have reportedly been told to prepare for a short, intense campaign.
Washington has warned several Arab countries in the Persian Gulf to prepare for a short and intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm congressional elections. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported this, citing officials briefed on the talks. The warning follows an intense US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran earlier this year, in spring.
Military preparations
According to the WSJ, the US military is already moving a Patriot air defence system from Texas and replenishing munitions stocks in the region. Fighter jets and bombers are being readied for strikes. Next month, an additional aircraft carrier strike group and a Marine unit will join the 20-ship force in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump has not made a final decision but is leaning towards a large-scale post-election attack, the sources said. Targets could include Iranian infrastructure and nuclear facilities. At a rally last week, Trump said the US could stage "another little Epic Fury", referring to the spring campaign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly also identified targets and is pressing for renewed strikes to topple the Iranian regime. The White House said it would not comment on "sensitive military plans that may or may not exist".
Doubts about effectiveness
Many analysts believe Iran is unlikely to capitulate under further attacks. Tehran has already withstood more than 20,000 US and Israeli strikes during the most active phase of the war, yet it continues to attack merchant ships in the Gulf, target US forces and warships, and make tough demands at the negotiating table. Former Israeli military intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz said it is a mistake to assume another round of strikes or the killing of senior officials could topple the regime.
Iran reportedly still holds thousands of missiles and is using the lull to strengthen its defences. The US and its Gulf allies are racing to rebuild missile defence stocks depleted by earlier waves of Iranian attacks. Israeli officials are concerned about how fast Tehran is rebuilding its military capability.
Middle Eastern mediators are trying to revive talks with Iran, but with little success: Washington insists on discussing Iran's nuclear programme, while Tehran sets strict preconditions.
Background
On 21 October it emerged that the US had begun withdrawing troops from its bases in the Middle East. At the same time, the US State Department ordered diplomats and their families to be evacuated from Gulf countries because of the threat of a new large-scale escalation.