US Professor: Greatest Threat of Attack on Baltics Exists in Next 2.5 Years

Roman Sheremeta, a professor at Case Western Reserve University in the US, said in an interview during the "Riga StratCom Dialogue 2026" conference that the Baltic states should prepare for a potential Russian attack in the next 2.5 years. He acknowledged that the Baltic countries are doing many things right—actively supporting Ukraine and urging Europe to bolster its defenses—but they are not discussing the Russian threat enough.

The professor noted that despite intelligence reports not indicating an imminent attack, Russia can mobilize its army within months. He expressed disagreement with Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže, emphasizing that the Baltic states are vulnerable. Sheremeta explained that Russia can no longer gain much from Ukraine but can from the Baltics, and that Russian propaganda channels already speak of war with the Baltic states.

Sheremeta warned that Russia could redeploy its troops from the Ukrainian front to the Baltic region, and although the probability is low (about 10%), it is real. He urged the Baltics to discuss this scenario more actively, model possible situations, and avoid the mistake Ukraine made by not believing in the possibility of a Russian attack.

The professor also questioned the effectiveness of NATO's Article 5, calling it a "paper tiger," as the US might not get involved and Europe has already spent resources on supporting Ukraine. He stressed that intelligence reports can change within days, so they should not be used as an excuse for inaction.