US dementia cases projected to rise sharply by 2050
A new study in Jama Neurology projects that annual new dementia cases worldwide will more than double. Experts say the US healthcare system, already short of specialists and care workers, will face growing strain.
The number of people with dementia in the United States is expected to climb steeply over the next 25 years, adding pressure to a healthcare system that is already short of resources, experts say, citing a new study in Jama Neurology. The picture is complicated by funding cuts to Medicaid, the public health insurance programme that covers a large share of long-term care, under the administration of President Donald Trump.
Projections
According to the study, new dementia cases worldwide each year will rise from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million in 2050. A separate Jama study from 2024 found that the number of US adults diagnosed annually will grow from 514,000 in 2020 to 1 million by 2060.
The drivers include longer life expectancy and more people reaching the ages at which dementia is most common. The Alzheimer's Association notes that the Hispanic population in the US almost doubled between 2000 and 2024, and that this group is 1.5 times as likely to develop dementia as white people.
Workforce shortages
A 2024 report by the American Health Care Association, a nursing home lobbying group, said almost all facilities had difficulty recruiting staff, and about half had limited new admissions. Demand for nursing assistants and home health aides is expected to grow by 48% and 42% respectively between 2020 and 2035, yet the median wage in May 2025 was under $19 an hour for nursing assistants and $17 for home health aides. The number of geriatricians fell from 10,270 in 2000 to 7,413 in 2022.
States are responding: almost half offered incentive payments to Medicaid home care workers in 2025, and South Carolina created a loan forgiveness programme for doctors specialising in geriatrics. Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in 2025, includes nearly $1tn in Medicaid cuts over 10 years.
Possible progress
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved two drugs, Kisunla and Leqembi, that can modestly slow cognitive decline in some patients with early Alzheimer's disease, as well as blood tests to help diagnose it. Experts say these treatments will be costly for the system and stress the importance of prevention, including better cardiovascular health and physical activity.
