Can the US midterm elections really change Trump's Iran policy?
The US holds midterm congressional elections on Tuesday, with the war on Iran among the central issues. Analysts say a Democratic win would constrain the president only partly, as both parties largely share the main goals of Iran policy.
The US midterm congressional elections, held on Tuesday, are shaping up as one of the most consequential in modern American history, with Washington's relationship with Israel and its war on Iran at the center. The vote renews the House of Representatives and part of the Senate, so the outcome affects how much oversight Congress can exert over President Donald Trump's conduct in the Middle East.
Many Democrats, including rising party figure Abdul El-Sayed, the Ohio Senate nominee, sharply criticize the war. El-Sayed has called it "illegal" and "stupid." During the campaign Trump tried to play down the war's effects: last week he claimed only "one or two targets" remained in Iran and could be settled in 10 minutes. He also said messages are still being exchanged and Tehran shows strong interest in a deal. At the same time, there are reports that the US and Israel are preparing a new round of strikes right after the election, while Republican Senator Ted Cruz presses the White House to deal with the "threat" posed by Iran.
Congress's leverage is limited
Former National Security Advisor John Bolton told DW that Democrats will likely win a House majority and possibly the Senate, giving them control over war funding. However, the president can veto legislation, and overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
US diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre points to a bipartisan consensus: both parties oppose the political structure of the Islamic Republic and support pressure on Tehran. Shahin Modarres, an international security analyst at ITSS Verona, says Tehran miscalculates in assuming a Democratic Congress can easily restrain the White House, and that its strategy may backfire after the election.
What may come after the vote
Bolton believes Trump will decide on next steps only after the election. He suggests the US could strike a new nuclear site he says Iran is building near Natanz, declare victory and pull back. Bolton sees "regime change" as the only lasting guarantee against an Iranian bomb, while Eyre stresses that fundamental change must come from within Iranian society.
