Australian government plans migration cuts, delays key Burke speech

Australia's Labor government is preparing to implement new regulations aimed at reducing net overseas migration and encouraging temporary residents to depart the country, even as a major speech by Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke on the subject was delayed. Government sources told Guardian Australia that the policy changes would not push net overseas migration below the existing target of 295,000 people for the current financial year.

The ABC reported on Wednesday that Burke's National Press Club address, originally scheduled for this week, had been postponed amid political considerations within the Albanese government. Burke was due to speak on Thursday about "the work of managing the migration program." A spokesperson said the address would likely take place in the next fortnight and "deal with the migration system as a whole." "Yesterday it became clear that some elements of the speech would not be finalised by Thursday. We're working with the press club to find a new date," the spokesperson added.

The rescheduling will allow Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to help sell any changes as Labor seeks to counter criticism from One Nation and the Coalition. Albanese is on scheduled leave this week.

The rule changes may not reduce net overseas migration (Nom) below the target, but they could better prioritise parts of the system, such as tightening working holiday rules, family visa applications, or limiting some appeal rights for migrants.

Migration politics have been intense across the country. The latest Guardian Essential poll, released last week, showed One Nation attracting 25% of the primary vote, down one point from June, while the populist party remains ahead of the Coalition. Labor's indicative primary vote rose one point to 31% in July, while the Coalition's share dropped another point to 22%.

Labor has kept the permanent migration target steady at 185,000 for the 2025-26 financial year, matching 2024-25, but rules are tightening. International students pursuing postgraduate study will be required to pay $5,750 for a visa, a 25% increase and the second rise in just four months. The fee was doubled in March and increased again in June.

Latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows Nom has dropped to 301,000, down 45% from the post-pandemic peak in 2023. After falling below zero during Covid lockdowns, annual migration growth rebounded to as high as 556,000 in late 2023. The May budget forecast Nom would decline to 295,000 this financial year, 245,000 next, and 225,000 in 2027-28.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen declined to discuss cabinet plans on Wednesday, noting "there's always a balance to be struck, which is something our political opponents don't often remember." He added that many businesses rely on a well-calibrated immigration system to provide workers that are difficult for the domestic market to supply.

Asylum Seeker Resource Centre deputy chief executive Jana Favero warned the government against demonising migrants to win back support from Pauline Hanson. "The planned National Press Club address should have been an opportunity to bring Australians together, not to legitimise the politics of fear and division," she said. "Scapegoating migrants won't build a home, lower a grocery bill or help a family pay the rent."

Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jonno Duniam accused Labor of causing "more chaos and confusion" by delaying the speech. "It is clearly only thinking about acting now because the political pressure has become impossible to ignore," he said.