Badenoch's personal popularity surges, but Tory party ratings stay flat
UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch's personal approval has risen sharply, but her party's overall standing remains weak. Tory strategists now plan an autumn push to spotlight her personally in hopes it lifts the whole party.
Nearly two years after taking over the Conservative Party following its heavy defeat in the 2024 general election, Kemi Badenoch's personal ratings have climbed significantly. A YouGov poll conducted last month found 38 percent of Britons think she is doing well as party leader, up 23 points since last October. Around 43 percent view her as decisive and 40 percent as competent.
Yet only about one in five Britons believe the Conservatives are ready to govern again, and the party now faces a more popular rival in Prime Minister Andy Burnham. As a result, Tory strategists are planning to put Badenoch front and center this autumn, hoping her personal appeal will rub off on the rest of the party.
Scarlett Maguire, founder of independent polling firm Merlin Strategy, said Badenoch's personal success has not translated into any meaningful shift in the party's polling, which remains worse than at the time of its 2024 election loss.
A different kind of conference
The party's annual conference in Birmingham in early October will be the first major set piece of the season. Last year's conference marked the start of Badenoch's transformation as leader, and her team hopes to repeat that success by making this year's event more focused on her personally and lighter on detailed policy compared with last year.
Budget and economic messaging
Shortly after the conference, the Burnham government's first budget is expected around Oct. 28, which the Conservatives plan to use to promote their economic vision. Badenoch's response to last year's budget went viral and is seen as a turning point in how the public perceives her. Sources say it is Badenoch, rather than shadow chancellor Mel Stride, who is driving the party's economic direction, though Stride's experience is still seen as valuable for credibility with businesses.
Trouble in the Reform camp
Tory morale has also been helped by a difficult summer for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who faced questions over donation declarations and spent much of the summer focused on the Clacton by-election. That left Badenoch as the main voice challenging Burnham. Some Conservative MPs point to reported divisions within Reform UK, including over welfare policy.
