White House Grows Anxious as Midterm Prospects Darken for Republicans

President Donald Trump has told aides he believes Republicans could exceed expectations in November's midterm elections, even as his own staff privately concede the political climate has turned sharply against the party. For the first time, White House officials have begun seriously weighing the possibility of losing majorities in both the House and Senate.

A longtime figure in Trump's political orbit, who had accurately forecast Trump's sweep of battleground states before the 2024 election, bluntly predicted a heavy defeat this time around.

A Wall Street Journal poll recently put Trump's approval rating at 37 percent, the lowest recorded for any president entering a midterm since such polling began in 1990. Trump's relative optimism reportedly stems partly from internal party polling suggesting Republicans are trailing by smaller margins in specific House races than public surveys indicate.

A White House spokesperson said Trump has built one of the strongest political coalitions in history through the MAGA movement, framing the choice for voters as between continuing Trump's agenda or backing Democratic policies.

Chasing foreign policy wins

Seeking to offset the unfavorable political environment, Trump's team began searching last month for foreign policy achievements to energize the party's base. This led to a quickly signed US-Denmark agreement expanding American military presence in Greenland, though it fell short of the outright takeover Trump has long sought. Trump also announced an oil agreement with Venezuela, which is expected to require renegotiation since it claims a 100-year production concession that conflicts with Venezuelan hydrocarbons law.

Despite Trump's focus on foreign policy, voters have remained far more concerned with domestic pocketbook issues. Diesel prices hit a record high this month, while the national average for regular gasoline climbed to $4.43 per gallon, according to AAA.

Preparing for oversight battles

With electoral odds narrowing, Trump's team is increasingly focused on preparing for an expected surge of subpoenas from congressional Democrats. The White House plans to rely on both executive privilege and attorney-client privilege protections, the latter bolstered by the appointment of Trump's former personal lawyers to senior government legal posts, including attorney general and White House counsel.