Ex-intelligence chief: an Ohio voter may decide the fate of peace talks
Former Ukrainian intelligence chief Valery Kondratyuk explains in an interview how hidden negotiation channels between the US, Ukraine and Russia work, and why Russian security services could become the force that shifts the Kremlin's course.
Valery Kondratyuk, former head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service and the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), said in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda that the peace negotiation process involving Ukraine, the United States and Russia will develop gradually rather than through a single meeting.
Kondratyuk, who spent years building contact channels between Ukrainian and American intelligence services and became an informal link between GUR chief Kyrylo Budanov and Washington after the war began, stressed that upcoming US midterm elections could significantly shape the direction of the talks. In his view, the election results will effectively serve as a vote of confidence in President Donald Trump, whose approval rating has reportedly fallen to 33%, and will determine whether he pressures Russia or treats Ukraine as the weaker party.
Leverage against Russia
Kondratyuk noted that the US has several tools of pressure on Moscow, including the ability to halt Russia's shadow fleet and continue military support for Ukraine, including ballistic missile technology. He said Ukraine currently lacks certain guidance system technologies that would allow it to shift from drone strikes to ballistic missile strikes against Russia.
Secret diplomacy
Discussing negotiation channels, Kondratyuk explained that real talks happen not openly but through intelligence channels. He referenced a visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Russia, during which meetings with the heads of Russia's FSB and SVR reportedly included facts about the war's real toll on Russia. Kondratyuk emphasized that any ceasefire mechanism would require a strict enforcement system, such as automatic sanctions for violations using frozen Russian assets as a source of compensation.
Russia's domestic politics
Commenting on Russia's recent elections, in which United Russia secured a record share of support, Kondratyuk argued that real power and knowledge of the country's economic situation is concentrated within Russia's security services, which could become the only force capable of shifting the country's course if the war's continuation leads toward economic catastrophe.
