Brazil Holds Presidential Runoff: Bolsonaro Against Lula

Brazil holds the decisive second round of its presidential election on Sunday, 25 October. The contest pits the country's current left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, against right-wing populist Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The winner will lead South America's largest country, and the vote continues a long-running rivalry between Lula's left-wing bloc and the far-right bloc of the Bolsonaro family.

Polls and first-round results

A PoderData poll published this week shows 50% support for each candidate. Last week, polls still showed a slight lead for Flávio Bolsonaro. In the first round on 4 October he won 47% of the vote, while Lula took 45.2%. In the first week after that vote, Bolsonaro led by as much as six percentage points, but Lula sharply narrowed the gap through mass campaign rallies across the country and an active social media presence. Deutsche Welle notes that the outcome could be as close as in 2022, when Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro with 50.9% of the vote. Jair Bolsonaro was later convicted over efforts to hold on to power through an attempted coup.

Candidates' pledges

Lula, who is 80, promotes the platform of his left-wing Workers' Party: broad social support programmes, state-funded development and a more equal redistribution of income. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, promises a very tough security policy and lower taxes, and criticises the high cost of living under Lula's government. He says he is more moderate than his father, but promises similar policies, including easier access to firearms and scepticism about human-caused climate change. He has also backed enshrining a five-day working week in law and pledged to keep the social programmes Lula started.

A polarised political landscape

In television debates last Sunday, the candidates traded personal insults and accusations of corruption, AFP reported. Political scientist Marco Aurélio Nogueira argues that polarisation has eliminated centrist parties and the "third way". Deutsche Welle notes that Lula would face a difficult term even if he wins, since right-wing parties made significant gains in the parliamentary elections held alongside the first round. Michelle and Carlos Bolsonaro won seats in the Federal Senate.