Brazil's runoff race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tightens further

Latest poll figures

On September 7, pollster Quaest released a survey showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading the first round with 36% of voter support, down from 37% on September 2. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) followed with 29%, unchanged from the previous round. In a simulated runoff, the two were tied at 41% each, whereas the prior poll had shown Lula ahead 42% to 41%. The survey interviewed 2,004 people in person between September 3 and 6, with a margin of error of two percentage points. Quaest is set to release a new poll next Monday, September 14, based on interviews conducted Thursday through Sunday with the same sample size and margin of error.

Other pollsters, as reported by Valor Econômico, show a similar but not identical picture. A Meio/Idea poll published September 9 found a technical tie already in the first round: Lula at 38.4% (down from 43% in August) versus Flávio at 37.3% (up from 35%). In the runoff scenario, both candidates scored 46% each. That poll surveyed 1,500 voters between September 4 and 7, with a two-point margin of error.

A Datafolha poll from September 3 showed a wider first-round gap, with Lula at 38% and Flávio at 33%. In the runoff simulation, however, the race again narrowed to a technical tie — Lula at 46% (range 44%-48%) against Flávio's 44% (range 42%-46%). That survey polled 2,002 voters between September 1 and 3.

Trends and other candidates

According to Quaest's tracking, a numerical tie in the runoff scenario first appeared in March. In April, Flávio briefly led numerically, 42% to 40%, but from May onward Lula pulled ahead, reaching his widest lead of the year in July at 45% to 37%. In August the gap narrowed again to 43% versus 40%.

Well behind the two front-runners, writer Augusto Cury (Avante) consistently ranks third across polls, with results ranging from 6.6% to 8%, followed by Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado and other candidates with smaller shares.

Brazil's first-round presidential vote is scheduled for October 4.