Brazilian Amazon deforestation hits lowest level on record ahead of runoff vote

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has dropped to its lowest level since records began in 1988, according to new government data. The figures were released shortly before Brazil's presidential run-off on 25 October, in which two candidates with sharply different visions for the rainforest, and for relations with the US under President Donald Trump, will compete.

The data

The Prodes satellite series, regarded as the most accurate measure of deforestation, shows 3,335 square kilometres of Amazon forest were cleared over the past year. That is 41.8% less than before and 1,236 sq km below the previous record low, an area comparable to the city of Rio de Janeiro.

Data compiled by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research shows the deforestation rate has slowed by 71.2% since Lula's administration began in 2022. This is largely attributed to stronger enforcement and state investment in environmental agencies.

The worst-affected states were Pará (33.9% of all Amazon deforestation), Mato Grosso (25.5%) and Amazonas (15.7%), though even there figures fell by more than 45%. Roraima, a Bolsonaro stronghold, saw a 0.4% increase. In the neighbouring Cerrado savanna, deforestation was the lowest since 2001 at 5,516 sq km, and has fallen 48.4% over four years.

Election context

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva trailed in the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. During Jair Bolsonaro's 2019–23 term, Amazon deforestation rose 59.5%. He was later convicted of attempting a coup, and his son has vowed to release him.

Former environment minister Marina Silva has warned that Flávio Bolsonaro will try to complete his father's "perverse project". Lula has warned that Trump is trying to colonise Brazil, while the Bolsonaro family has close ties to the US.

Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, said the figures show ending forest destruction is possible, but that everything depends on the election result.