Brazil's Série B: Novorizontino takes the lead, CRB shows the strongest form in the promotion race

Leadership change

In round 28 of Brazil's Série B, the top of the table shuffled. Previous leader Juventude suffered a surprise 0-2 home defeat in Caxias do Sul to Athletic — with second-half goals from Aponzá and Kauan Lindes — allowing Novorizontino to move into first place. Both clubs are level on 50 points, but Novorizontino holds a better goal difference (+23 versus Juventude's +13), putting the São Paulo state club on top.

Promotion odds

According to ge.globo's simulation-based statistical model (after round 28), Novorizontino's chance of direct promotion to Série A stands at 61.07%, while Juventude's dropped from 52.95% to 40.7% over the round. Third-placed Vila Nova (35.04%) and fourth-placed Fortaleza (25.59%) both finished their latest matches in 1-1 draws. The top two teams are promoted directly; third through sixth play a two-legged playoff (3rd vs 6th, 4th vs 5th) for two further promotion spots, while the bottom four are relegated to Série C.

Playoff race

Fortaleza leads the playoff-qualification odds with 53.29%, followed by Criciúma (51.98%) and Vila Nova (51.25%). The standout performance came from Atlético-GO, which thrashed Criciúma 4-0 — Gustavo Coutinho scored a hat-trick (two goals in the first half), Gustavo Maia added a fourth, and Geovany Soares provided four assists. The win pushed Atlético-GO's playoff chances up from 34.97% to 44.39%.

Relegation battle

At the bottom, Londrina thrashed Ponte Preta 6-0, sharply cutting its own relegation risk, while Ponte Preta's relegation probability reached 100% and its winless streak extended to 22 matches — the longest such run in the competition's history, according to ge.globo. América-MG (99.99% relegation probability) lost again and sits second-from-bottom. Avaí drew 1-1 at home with Vila Nova and stayed 17th, just one point behind Botafogo-SP, the first team outside the relegation zone; Avaí's relegation probability is 52.80%. Per the model, the "magic number" to guarantee survival is 46 points.

Form over the last ten rounds

A separate ge.globo analysis of the last ten rounds paints a different picture: CRB tops that table with 22 of a possible 30 points (73.3%) — seven wins, one draw and two losses, a +6 goal difference — even though it sits 7th overall with 45 points. Atlético-GO is second in the form table (21 points, 70%) and 6th overall with 46 points, just one ahead of CRB. The two sides meet head-to-head on October 7 at 8:30 pm at Estádio Rei Pelé, a match that could decide a playoff spot. Despite leading the overall table, Novorizontino ranks only third in recent form (20 points), with Juventude fourth (18). At the other end, Ponte Preta has managed just 2 of 30 points in its last ten games (6.67%, two draws and eight losses), while América-MG (9 points) and Londrina (8) are also in poor form. Meanwhile fifth-placed Criciúma, despite its overall standing, has collected only 11 points in the last ten rounds — a reminder that current league position doesn't always reflect recent form.