Four key questions hanging over Marine Le Pen's 2027 presidential candidacy

After months of legal proceedings that threatened to derail Marine Le Pen's presidential aspirations, she was sentenced to one year of house arrest on Tuesday. The initial five-year election ban was reduced to 15 months as of March 2025, allowing her to run for office. Le Pen said she would appeal the verdict to France's highest court, the Cour de cassation, to avoid wearing an electronic ankle monitor during the campaign. "The French will judge," she said as she launched her bid for the 2027 presidential election, pledging to work closely with Jordan Bardella, whom she has designated as her future prime minister.

Legal next steps A key challenge for Le Pen is to avoid campaigning while under a court order restricting her movement. In principle, appealing to the Cour de cassation suspends the sentence, so Le Pen can campaign without an ankle bracelet. However, there is a catch: the president of the high court has said judges will aim to rule before the presidential election. If she loses that final appeal, she could be forced to wear a bracelet during the last stretch of the race. She would then need to secure lenient conditions for her house arrest, such as wide time frames for campaign outings, but with an obligation to be home at night.

How strong is she as a candidate? Le Pen is on strong footing. A June Ifop poll showed her in first place with 32% of the vote in the first round. Her protégé Bardella, who would have been the National Rally nominee if she had been barred, polls slightly higher at 36%. Le Pen has high name recognition, but remains toxic to parts of the electorate, especially older generations who remember her father's antisemitic remarks. Her past pledge to leave the EU and perceived weakness on economic issues have also scared off traditional free-market right voters, whom Bardella has been courting. To win in 2027, the National Rally may need to gain center-right voters, who, according to pollsters, are more likely to rally behind Bardella than Le Pen.

Can Bardella rebel? Despite Bardella's higher poll numbers, a coup against Le Pen is unlikely. Even Le Pen's loyal lieutenants who have criticized Bardella's moves credit him for being loyal. He would also lack the troops: while Bardella runs party operations and is the face in Brussels, Le Pen's faithful hold key positions in the party structure and in the National Assembly, where she leads a group of 122 far-right lawmakers.

Where will the dust settle on Europe and the economy? Le Pen is a committed Euroskeptic who wants to sharply reduce France's contribution to the EU budget, which she recently called "delirious." She shares Bardella's desire to restrict immigration and opposes EU policies. Le Pen has said she would seek to change the French constitution to enshrine the primacy of French law over European law to radically restrict immigration, likely clashing with the Constitutional Council and EU institutions. On the economy, she supports an interventionist, pro-state approach and slams free trade deals. She wants to reverse Macron's pension reform, bringing the retirement age down to 62 from 64. Bardella has recently questioned that position, but Le Pen has shown limited openness to tweaking. The party will unveil its platform in the fall, with Le Pen having the final say.