How much does winning the Community Shield really predict a team's season?

Since the Premier League began in 1992-93, only eight of the 34 Charity or Community Shield winners have gone on to lift the league title in the same season. Five of those successes came within a concentrated six-year spell between 2005 and 2010. Manchester City were the most recent team to manage it, in 2019, with Alex Ferguson's Manchester United having done so before that in 2011. Of the last 15 Community Shield winners, only one has gone on to become champions that season.

Notably, the losing finalists have historically fared better - teams beaten in the Community Shield have gone on to win the league title 10 times since 1992, including Manchester City in three consecutive seasons from 2021 to 2023.

Last season Crystal Palace defeated Liverpool in the Community Shield but finished just 15th in the league, despite going on to win the Conference League. Liverpool also endured a disappointing domestic campaign, finishing fifth.

The data also shows that 47% of the time (16 of 34 seasons), the eventual Premier League champions had not even featured in that season's Community Shield - as was the case with Arsenal in 2025-26. Meanwhile, 53% of the time (18 of 34), the Shield winners finished the season above the losing finalists. On 10 occasions the two teams finished as the league's top two, with the Shield winner topping the table in four of those instances.

Mixed fortunes for individual players

Players' fortunes following Community Shield appearances have varied widely. Last year Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr combined for 37 league goals for Crystal Palace, while Hugo Ekitike scored his first goal in his debut season at Liverpool, though Jeremie Frimpong struggled in his first campaign after scoring in the Shield. In 2023, Cole Palmer scored for Manchester City before later moving to Chelsea, where he was named the league's young player of the season. The previous year, Darwin Nunez scored on his Liverpool debut while Erling Haaland failed to score in his City debut - yet Haaland went on to score 52 league goals that season compared with Nunez's 15.