How much fuel could cost in Latvia if only the EU's minimum tax rates applied

A calculation shared on the social network X illustrates what fuel prices in Latvia could theoretically look like if the country applied only the European Union's minimum tax rates. The estimate is based on the European Commission's average pre-tax fuel prices in Latvia as of September 7, 2026.

According to the published calculation, diesel without taxes would cost €1.228 per litre. Applying the EU minimum excise rate of €0.330 per litre and VAT at the 15% standard rate would bring the theoretical final price to about €1.792 per litre, meaning taxes would account for roughly 56 cents per litre.

A similar calculation was made for 95-octane petrol, with a pre-tax price of €0.985 per litre. Applying the EU minimum excise rate of €0.359 per litre and 15% VAT (about €0.202) would result in a theoretical final price of €1.546 per litre.

An important caveat

Both the calculation itself and commentary around it stress that this is a theoretical exercise, not a prediction that prices at Latvian filling stations will actually drop to these levels. The EU sets minimum VAT and excise levels, but member states are free to set higher rates.

In Latvia, the standard VAT rate in 2026 is 21% — six percentage points higher than the 15% rate used in the calculation. Excise duty in Latvia is likewise above the EU minimum: at the start of 2026, the standard rate was €467 per 1,000 litres for diesel and €555 per 1,000 litres for unleaded petrol. At the same time, Latvia introduced a temporary diesel excise rate of €396 per 1,000 litres this year, set under legislation aimed at curbing increases in oil product prices.