EU Population to Peak in 2029, Then Begin Long-Term Decline

The population of the European Union will continue to grow for only a few more years, according to the latest report from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC). Currently, about 450.6 million people live in the EU, and projections indicate that the peak will be reached in 2029 with a population of 453.3 million. After that, a gradual decline will begin – by 2100, the EU population could drop to 398.8 million, which is 11.7% less than the projected peak.

At the same time, Europeans are living longer. Life expectancy in 2024 reached 81.5 years, and by the end of the century, women could live on average more than 90 years, and men more than 86 years. However, longer lives also mean rapid population aging. Currently, about one in five EU residents is at least 65 years old, but by 2050, almost one in three will be in this age group.

Experts warn that these demographic changes will put increasing pressure on labor markets, healthcare and social care systems, as well as pension provision. Meanwhile, demand for goods and services tailored to seniors will grow. European Commissioner Dubravka Šuica emphasized that Europe is living longer and healthier than ever before, but the aging society will fundamentally change the economy and labor market. She believes that countries must already seek solutions to turn demographic change into an opportunity, not a problem.

The report also concludes that migration can help ease labor shortages, but it alone cannot fully offset the effects of an aging society. Researchers call for better use of the existing labor potential, as about one-fifth of working-age Europeans are currently not in the labor market, and around eight million young people are neither working nor studying.