Economist warns of potential autumn price rises for fuel and heating

SEB bank economist Dainis Gašpuitis said on TV24's "Ziņu TOP" programme that tension around energy prices could increase this autumn, potentially affecting several market segments at once.

According to Gašpuitis, rising fuel prices could be an early sign, likely followed by higher heating costs. He noted that heating prices are already trending upward, and similar pressure is building in the gas market.

No physical shortage expected

The economist stressed that there is currently no basis to talk about a physical shortage of energy resources. The main challenge, he said, is their price level rather than availability.

Hopes for an Iran-US deal did not materialize

Gašpuitis recalled that a similar situation could have already emerged in July, but market participants at the time hoped for a possible agreement between Iran and the United States that would have stabilized the market by autumn. Since no such agreement has been reached, tension in the market continues to grow, bringing the energy price issue back into focus.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries

The situation is further shaped by Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries. Gašpuitis assessed that these strikes have reduced Russia's ability to export oil products at previous volumes, forcing global markets to seek supply elsewhere.

The economist said a kind of diesel fuel crisis is currently visible and could intensify further. He added that future developments will depend both on geopolitical events and weather conditions, since colder weather increases demand for oil products used for heating.