Economist: Ukraine must prepare for a huge wave of migration from Asia
Economist Oleg Pendzin predicts that once security conditions improve, Ukraine could see 400,000–450,000 migrants arriving annually from poorer Southeast Asian countries to fill its labor shortage.
Oleg Pendzin, a member of Ukraine's Economic Discussion Club, told the UNIAN media outlet that Ukraine needs to prepare for a large wave of labor migration once the security situation improves. He estimates that the country could see roughly 400,000 to 450,000 migrants arriving each year from poorer Southeast Asian nations.
Growing labor shortage
According to Pendzin, Ukraine needs about five million additional working-age people just to return to its 2021 industrial production levels. Before the full-scale war began, the country had 18 million working-age residents; that number has now dropped to somewhere between 12.5 and 13 million.
The economist noted that Ukrainian businesses are already facing significant labor shortages, and in the future this gap may need to be filled by immigrants from countries with lower wage levels than Ukraine — including Southeast Asia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. He said these countries are currently overpopulated and struggling with shortages of food and housing, so it is quite possible that a considerable number of Indian citizens will also settle in Ukraine.
Which workers will be needed most
Pendzin predicts that in the coming years, demand will be highest for jobs requiring manual labor and relatively low qualifications, since Ukraine already has a surplus of people with higher education but a shortage of workers in practical trades.
Current data shows that about 78% of Ukrainian employers already feel a shortage of workers, while 68% expect the situation to worsen over the next year. The shortage is most acute among unskilled laborers. Ukraine's Ministry of Economy has calculated that to sustain 7% annual economic growth, the country will need around 4.5 million additional workers over the next decade.
