US midterm elections could become a referendum on Trump, analyst says

Midterm elections in the United States often function as a public verdict on the sitting president’s record. That outlook is central to a new analysis by Michelle Swers, Professor of Government at Georgetown University, who looks at the New Hampshire primary as both a major Senate contest and an unusually telling sign of the national mood ahead of November.

According to Swers, Democrats are confronting an unfavourable Senate map and cannot afford to give up an open seat currently in their hands. Beyond the local race, she suggests, the entire midterm environment may turn into a referendum on President Donald Trump’s performance. New Hampshire is considered especially instructive in this regard because its voters are almost evenly split between the two major parties. This close partisan balance makes national political trends far more visible within the state’s own election results.

Swers also identifies specific factors that could hurt Republican prospects this year. Trump’s low approval ratings, combined with the economic consequences of tariffs imposed on Canadian goods, create significant headwinds for the party, she argues. These issues are particularly acute in New Hampshire, a state whose political identity has long been shaped by resistance to taxation. The professor’s assessment suggests that economic and political anxieties are likely to be decisive in the coming weeks, not just in New Hampshire but in similar competitive areas elsewhere.