Expert: Democrats Have Good Midterm Chances in US, but Trump's Rating Is Deep in the Red

In an interview with the Russian-language service of Estonia's public broadcaster ERR, an expert named Arras discussed the upcoming US midterm elections and the level of support for President Donald Trump. The midterms renew seats in Congress, and their outcome will decide whether the Republican Party keeps its majority. Democrats are seen as favorites, but the result is not yet certain.

Forecasts and turnout

According to the expert, various analytical platforms put the chance of the House of Representatives passing to Democratic control at 80–90%. Forecasts for the Senate are more modest at 50–60%, though some experts are more optimistic. She stresses that forecasts are only forecasts, and voter behavior will become clear only on election day. The main intrigue, she says, is money versus turnout: more than a billion dollars has been invested in the Republican campaign, while studies show Democratic voters are more motivated to go to the polls.

Reasons for voter discontent

The biggest causes of dissatisfaction, in her words, are domestic. Inflation is one of the main concerns: in one study, almost 75% of respondents were very unhappy with how Trump is handling it. Immigration policy also draws criticism, particularly in districts with Latino populations, as does the war with Iran and the energy issues linked to it.

Possible consequences

The expert believes Trump will not simply accept a defeat, recalling his reply that he can still use a veto. In her view, Republicans may also contest unfavorable results. Even if Democrats win a Senate majority, without 60 seats they could not end filibusters, so a deadlock is likely. She names Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Michigan and Maine as states to watch.

Trump's rating in the latest studies stands at –20 to –30. The expert notes that returning from negative territory is hard. Democrats have yet to settle on a single clear leader ahead of the 2028 presidential election.