Expert: Ukraine and Gulf Conflicts Are Increasingly Intertwined
Russia and Iran have deepened their partnership since the war in Ukraine, with cooperation ranging from drones and intelligence to sanctions evasion. An analyst says the two conflicts are closely connected and should be analyzed together.
A partnership shaped by war
Russia and Iran have stopped short of a formal military alliance, but their cooperation has expanded significantly since Russia invaded Ukraine. Tehran has supplied Moscow with Shahed drones used extensively in the war, while Moscow has provided satellite imagery, training and operational support. According to Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Russian-Iranian relations, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf are deeply connected and should be examined together. Ukraine has also sought help from Gulf partners on counter-drone tactics, underscoring the shared threat.
Limits of support
No complete Russian weapons system has been transferred to Iran, with the last reported deal being a Verba MANPADS agreement. Instead, Russia is providing components that allow Iran to improve its drones. Russia can help with electronic warfare and radar reconstruction, but air defence remains a problem: Moscow needs its own systems, and Tehran cannot afford them. Still, the analyst argues Russia is not too tied down by the war to support Iran where it matters most.
Intervention only in a collapse
Iran is different from Syria for Russia, as it is largely independent and capable of challenging American power on its own. The expert believes Moscow would only intervene militarily if the Iranian regime faced collapse and chaos. In that scenario, Russia would likely use special operations forces or private military contractors rather than a large deployment.
Economic and energy tensions
The economic side of the relationship has always been weak. Both countries are energy exporters, so their trade is not complementary. Since the war, Russia has entered markets where Iran used to sell oil, including Chinese refining and tanker capacity. At the same time, sanctions evasion has created new areas of cooperation. China plays a crucial role for both sides, providing components and financial help, but Beijing is cautious about escalation because it depends on Gulf energy supplies.
Internal security and sanctions
Iran has learned from Russian methods of authoritarian control and internet shutdowns. The two countries have agreements between their security services and a 2021 information security pact. Russia’s support, including satellite targeting data, has been carried out with plausible deniability. Moscow denies involvement and avoids open confrontation with the West. Sanctions are unlikely to be lifted, but despite isolation, Russia and Iran keep expanding their partnership.
