Experts: This Winter's Gas Price Will Be Higher Than Last Year's

Gas prices in Europe have started to rise, and the level of gas in storage is currently one of the lowest in a long time. The current market price is around 48 euros per megawatt-hour, compared to about 40 euros two weeks ago, as reported by "Aktuaalne Kaamera."

According to Margus Kaasik, Chairman of the Board of Elenger, European storage facilities are now about 50% full. "According to current forecasts, it could reach about 75%. Gas reserves are being replenished, but at a slower pace than before. Hostilities in the Middle East have intensified again, and this affects the price much more than storage levels," Kaasik explained.

Elenger and Alexela have reduced prices for flexible tariff packages in August, but prices may rise slightly in September. "The gas price will likely fluctuate in the range of 45-50 euros. On one hand, I don't see a major threat of a sharp price increase, but on the other hand, I don't see a scenario where it would drop significantly before winter. For those who already have a fixed tariff, nothing will change. But for those on an exchange or flexible tariff package, prices will probably increase a bit," believes Kalvi Nõu, Head of Energy Portfolio at Alexela.

According to experts, Europe does not face a gas shortage, but the price this winter will likely be higher than last winter. "Current market expectations suggest that this winter's gas price will be higher than last winter's. But a lot depends on how the conflict between Iran and the US ends: whether negotiations will succeed, whether gas supplies from Qatar will resume. Qatar produces about 20% of the world's LNG, and these volumes were precisely absent from the market," noted Marko Allikson, Board Member of Baltic Energy Partners.

If the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, Qatar could return the majority of its gas and LNG volumes to the market within 1-3 months.