Experts: No major breakthrough expected from Trump envoys' visits to Moscow and Kyiv
US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Kyiv after talks in Moscow, but analysts remain cautious about near-term prospects for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
The United States is making another attempt to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. President Donald Trump's special envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, arrived in Kyiv on Sunday after visiting Moscow the day before, where they sought conditions acceptable to both sides of the conflict. Experts say that so-called shuttle diplomacy can be more effective than regular communication channels in a near-deadlock situation.
Mapping out the limits
Security expert Raivo Vare explained that such diplomacy is commonly used when contradictions between sides are very deep. Its purpose, he said, is to identify each side's threshold — the lowest level of compromise Russia would accept, and the highest level Ukraine would accept — and then try to find common ground between them.
No breakthrough expected soon
However, experts do not expect a significant shift toward a truce in the near term. They believe that ahead of Russia's State Duma elections, Moscow will continue negotiating from a position of strength to avoid appearing weak. Meanwhile, US midterm congressional elections are set for early November, and the Trump administration needs to show some result so Republicans do not lose their majority. Vare suggested that one likely focus will be pressuring Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil facilities, noting that comments from the US Treasury Secretary linking Ukraine to high fuel prices suggest this is circulating within the administration as a precondition.
Putin negotiating from strength
Ukrainian political scientist Artem Dudchenko, who lives in Estonia, said Vladimir Putin currently sees no reason for major compromises, since the Kremlin believes it holds the advantage. This perception is reinforced by more frequent strikes deep into Ukrainian territory, corruption scandals in Kyiv, and the approaching heating season, during which Ukraine will be especially vulnerable. Dudchenko said Putin appears to believe the Russian army is succeeding in Ukraine and that Kyiv will eventually accept the terms he is now proposing.
Reuters reported that national security advisers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany have also arrived in Kyiv.
