Experts split over impact of new North Korean troop deployment to Russia
Intelligence sources warn North Korea may send Russia another 30,000-50,000 troops, though experts doubt this would be a turning point in the Ukraine war. Greater concern centers on North Korean missile supplies, which have already killed civilians.
In late 2024, North Korea sent troops to help Russia defend the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces, with an estimated 14,000-15,000 soldiers deployed initially. Ukrainian and international intelligence agencies now believe Pyongyang may send an additional 30,000-50,000 troops. Ukrainian officials also report that North Korean ballistic missiles are being launched from Russian territory. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that North Korea's growing combat experience could pose a security risk not only to Ukraine but to the wider Asia-Pacific region.
Diverging views on the threat
Oleksandr Kovalenko of the Ukrainian Center for Security Studies believes new North Korean forces would likely secure Russian border areas, including Kursk and southwestern Voronezh, freeing up roughly 15,000 Russian troops for front-line fighting near Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Sumy or Chernihiv. Both Kovalenko and Russian military analyst Ruslan Leviev doubt North Korean troops would fight inside Ukraine itself, noting a clear diplomatic distinction between defending Russian territory and joining an offensive war on internationally recognized Ukrainian land. Leviev added he has seen no concrete evidence of a significant North Korean presence, arguing Russia still recruits around 1,000 contract soldiers daily and does not need to rely heavily on foreign troops.
Missiles seen as bigger concern
Evidence is stronger regarding North Korean ballistic missiles. Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) says 148 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles have been delivered since 2025. In July, one such missile struck a home near Kryvyi Rih, killing five family members, according to Zelenskyy. HUR also reports a North Korean missile unit deploying to Russia's Voronezh region, potentially equipped with 120 missiles. Experts note these missiles, like Russia's Iskander systems, can only be intercepted by US-made Patriot systems, which Ukraine has in short supply. While none of the experts consulted expect North Korea's involvement to be a turning point in the war, several warned that the coming months — October through December — could prove especially difficult for Ukraine.
