Former Ukrainian foreign minister: Putin won't risk open war with NATO — two simple reasons why

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko said in an interview with Oboz.ua that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine and is not relying on talks with the United States or any other resolution. As an example, he cited recent remarks by Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who said a ceasefire in the Black Sea was unnecessary — a statement Ohryzko says confirms Moscow's unchanged confrontational course.

Two reasons NATO war is unlikely

Still, Ohryzko is convinced Russia will not launch an open, full-scale war against European countries. He points to two simple reasons: Moscow lacks the necessary resources, and it understands that such a move would trigger an inevitable, devastating response. As a result, Russia will continue relying on hybrid warfare — cyberattacks, provocations and testing NATO's patience. Ohryzko is also skeptical of Putin's threats to seize European ships on the world's oceans, noting Russia lacks the naval capacity and global presence that Western countries have to detain vessels in the Baltic, North or Mediterranean seas.

Western hesitation

Ohryzko criticized the West's slow and cautious response, citing Germany's reluctance to openly label recent incidents as Russian terrorist attacks. While the decision to allow shooting down Russian drones over NATO territory is a step forward, he says real action — permission to down drones over threatened areas near Ukraine's neighboring countries — remains far off. He warns this hesitancy only emboldens Putin to escalate further, and believes the West's indecision will only end after a tragedy with casualties in a NATO capital.

Calls for firmer action

Ohryzko believes NATO countries, together with Ukraine, could economically pressure Russia by blocking the movement of sanctioned vessels in the Black and Baltic seas, but says the West currently lacks the political will to do so. On potential US-mediated peace talks, he stressed that without Moscow's consent, any proposals would be futile. Real negotiations, he said, will only begin once Ukraine, using missiles and drones, starts massively destroying Russia's military and industrial infrastructure.