Expert: Kremlin to use election mandate to boost war economy

An overnight strike on the Kapotnya oil refinery near Moscow coincided with Russia's regional election weekend and has caused a serious fuel shortage in the capital. According to an expert, the strike was effective because the destroyed primary processing unit handled more than 60 percent of the crude oil entering the refinery, leaving little feedstock for producing diesel and gasoline. Lines have formed at Moscow gas stations, some have run out of fuel entirely, and signs advertising a 20-liter limit per customer have even been taken down.

The expert rejected claims by the U.S. president that rising diesel prices in America are linked to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, saying the main driver is the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, whose impact on world markets is several times greater than that of Russian diesel supply issues.

Election and public mood

On the election itself, the expert said the removal of the Yabloko party from the ballot was tied to fears that its call for peace negotiations would attract too much support. Turnout reached 53 percent, higher than in the previous vote, meaning the Kremlin's main goal of securing majority participation was already achieved. Polling stations in Donetsk Oblast closed at 2 p.m. out of concern that results could not be processed before dark, when Ukrainian drone strikes typically occur. Polls conducted before Yabloko's removal showed nearly 60 percent of respondents favored entering peace negotiations.

War economy and mobilization

After the vote, changes are expected within Russia's ruling elite tied to strengthening the war economy, including intensified domestic asset redistribution — the seizure of assets belonging to international corporation Nestlé was cited as one recent example. An internal power struggle is also underway within the FSB. The expert said a gradual mobilization is possible in the near future, based on a decree issued in fall 2022, aimed at strengthening Russia's negotiating position — with up to 150,000 men potentially prepared by year's end and as many as 300,000 called up in total.