Expert: Latvia's silence on Hormuz Strait was a mistake amid Iran tensions
Geopolitical analyst Māris Andžāns says Latvia erred by not publicly offering to help clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran conflict. He argues such a statement would have mattered for political support and US relations, even if the help was never actually needed.
Māris Andžāns, associate professor at Riga Stradiņš University and director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies, said on TV24's programme "Globuss" that Latvia made a mistake by not declaring in time its readiness to help clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz if the need arose. He argued that such a statement would have carried political weight, even though Latvia would likely never have actually had to provide such assistance.
Andžāns noted that changes are already visible in the region — Iran is holding talks with Oman, while Gulf states are seeking alternative routes for transporting oil to reduce dependence on the Hormuz strait. In his view, the strait will never be quite the same as before, though building alternative infrastructure will take several years.
Wider security context
The expert stressed that Latvia's stance should be assessed against the backdrop of the United States gradually reducing its presence in Europe. He believes Latvia should have been able to voice at least political support for the US, even without sending troops to the region. At the same time, he noted that Latvia is worried about the possibility of the US scaling back troop rotations in Lithuania and elsewhere, describing Latvia's silence in this context as cowardly.
Andžāns added that Latvia needs to watch the positions taken by other European countries, but he does not believe a more assertive Latvian statement would have provoked serious pushback from European partners, since they are well aware of Latvia's situation. He also recalled 2003, when French President Jacques Chirac advised new EU member states to make use of the opportunity to stay silent, noting that current French President Emmanuel Macron is not quite comparable to Chirac.
In conclusion, the expert emphasized that Latvia must recognize the asymmetry in its relationship with the US — Latvia needs American support far more than the reverse.
