Expert: If Russian strikes intensify, Poland could expel diplomats and block the Suwałki corridor
Military expert Ivan Stupak has outlined possible response steps Poland might consider if Russian drone and missile strikes near its border intensify. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has already warned of a possible escalation.
If Russia were to intensify drone and missile strikes closer to Polish territory, Warsaw could consider several possible response measures, military expert Ivan Stupak said in comments to the Ukrainian news agency Unian.ua. Stupak worked for Ukraine's Security Service from 2004 to 2015.
One possible step, according to the expert, would be expelling Russian diplomats from Poland. Stupak also suggested Poland could strengthen air defence deployments facing Ukraine, and considered the possibility of shooting down Russian drones and missiles over Ukrainian territory near the Polish border.
The Suwałki corridor as a potential flashpoint
As one of the more complex but possible scenarios, the expert pointed to blocking the Suwałki corridor. This roughly 100-kilometre land strip connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO territory and lies between Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad region. Stupak suggested Poland could deploy tanks in the corridor, but stressed that such a step would carry serious risks, since Russia could respond with countermeasures.
At the same time, the expert noted that NATO would most likely not enter direct war with Russia in such a situation, and that Poland's possible reaction should first be weighed against Russia's likely response. In his view, Poland is unlikely to take very drastic military steps.
Tusk warns of escalation
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made these assessments after Russian strikes near the Yahodyn border crossing on the Ukrainian side, close to Poland's border. Tusk stated that Russian activity in the region is intensifying and that Poland must be prepared for a possible deterioration of the security situation, including a scenario in which the escalation reaches Polish territory.
The prime minister emphasised that the coming weeks and months could be a period of intense Russian activity, and that an impact on Polish territory cannot be ruled out. Following his statement, discussions have intensified within Poland about possible response steps should Russian air strikes come closer to, or directly hit, its territory.
