Expert: Removal of Usmanov and Fridman from sanctions list was part of a broader political game
Researcher Armands Astukevičs says Latvia benefited from clearly stating its opposition to delisting Russian oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from EU sanctions, but warns against reading the outcome as a softening of the EU's stance on Russia.
Armands Astukevičs, a researcher at the Centre for Eastern European Policy Studies, said Latvia gained from publicly and clearly opposing the removal of Russian oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from the European Union's sanctions list, even though the government ultimately withdrew its objections.
According to the expert, it is worth weighing whether this particular fight was worth risking the broader sanctions policy and previously reached agreements. He rejected the framing that Latvia had stood against major EU states, noting that other Baltic and Nordic countries, normally strong sanctions advocates, had also shifted their position in favor of delisting the two oligarchs.
Sanctions as a bargaining chip
Astukevičs recalled that EU sanctions issues have previously served as objects of political bargaining, citing Hungary and Slovakia's practices. In his view, the current situation is therefore not unique. At the same time, the agreement to extend sanctions on roughly 3,000 individuals and entities, including Vladimir Putin, for 36 months instead of reviewing them every six months, represents a significant achievement.
France's role
The expert noted that France's shift in position is something new, unlike Slovakia, whose stance on EU sanctions is well known and recurring. France justified its request citing national security considerations, reportedly linked to the case of French citizens detained in Azerbaijan. Astukevičs believes Usmanov and Fridman were rather pawns in a broader French foreign policy game, not evidence that France has become more favorable toward the oligarchs.
Possible Russian reaction
The expert suggested Russia could use the situation in its rhetoric, emphasizing European fatigue with sanctions or highlighting divisions between the EU and the Baltic states. As a negative aspect, Astukevičs pointed to domestic political debates that created an impression of disagreement between Latvia's foreign minister and prime minister on the international stage.
