El Nino Sets New Pacific Temperature Record as Weather Pattern Strengthens
The EU's Copernicus climate monitor reported that a key El Nino monitoring zone in the Pacific hit its highest sea surface temperature on record in September. Copernicus stopped short of saying this is already the strongest El Nino ever recorded.
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Monday that sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region of the Pacific, a zone used to monitor El Nino, reached 29.70C in September, an all-time high. El Nino is the warming phase of a natural climate cycle that raises tropical Pacific sea temperatures, can increase the risk of drought and flooding, and can worsen man-made global warming.
Earlier peaks surpassed
The new figure exceeds the peaks of the strong El Nino events of 1982/1983, 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. Copernicus said this underscores the exceptional intensity of the current event. Forecasters have warned for months that this El Nino could become the strongest ever observed, and the record fell before the peak expected later this year.
In a statement to AFP, however, Copernicus said it cannot yet conclude that this is the strongest El Nino on record. Rising ocean temperatures from climate change can make recent events look stronger than past ones, which complicates historical comparisons. The service adopted a new index that accounts for tropical ocean warming, and it suggests the current event is not yet stronger than earlier ones. Japan's weather agency, on Friday, said El Nino conditions had reached their strongest intensity on record, with temperatures in the monitoring area 4C above normal.
Global records and the 1.5C threshold
Global average sea surface temperature hit a record 21.05C for September, topping the previous September high of 20.92C set in 2023. Surface air temperatures averaged 16.27C, making it the second hottest September on record and 1.63C above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.
At the 2015 Paris climate talks, nations agreed to keep warming well below 2C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C. The UN said in September that the long-term 1.5C target would be missed within years. Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said the current run of months above 1.5C is likely to last into 2027, and that crossing the limit is only a matter of time. Experts have warned this El Nino would likely push global temperatures to a new record in 2027.
