El-Obeid under siege: Sudan's next humanitarian catastrophe?
The Sudanese city of El-Obeid is under siege by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), threatening to repeat the bloody scenario of El-Fasher. About 500,000 people, including 105,000 displaced, are trapped with no way to flee.
Situation in El-Obeid
The city of El-Obeid, capital of North Kordofan state in Sudan, is besieged by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has warned of an impending humanitarian catastrophe, as the city is expected to become the next major battleground between the RSF and the Sudanese army.
Since October, when the RSF captured El-Fasher after an 18-month siege, international alarm has grown over mass atrocities. Amnesty International called the massacres ethnic cleansing, and an independent UN mission stated in February that the assault bore the "hallmarks of genocide."
Strategic importance
El-Obeid sits on a key route between RSF-controlled Darfur and army-controlled eastern regions. The city hosts the government's 5th Infantry Division, an airbase, an oil pipeline, and a major gum arabic market. If the RSF takes it, they would control a supply route to central Sudan, severely limiting the army's ability to control the Kordofan region.
Living conditions
The city has faced relentless drone strikes since March. In ten consecutive days, at least 50 civilians were killed. Attacks on the power station caused blackouts, disrupted water supplies, and hampered hospital operations. Food prices have surged up to 300%, and water prices have doubled. Residents rely on wells and water tanks outside the city.
International response
An international coalition led by Norway, including the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Sierra Leone, plus 21 other countries, warned of imminent atrocities. The UN has called on the international community to prevent another catastrophe.
Expert analysis
Analyst Ahmed Ben Omer says the fall of El-Obeid could shift the war's strategy. Unlike El-Fasher, where the RSF used a full siege, El-Obeid is under siege-like conditions through drone attacks, producing similar results: starvation and exhaustion. He warns that prolonged pressure could lead to famine, as was confirmed in El-Fasher in September.
