ENTSOG Warns of Possible Winter Gas Shortfall in Europe; Latvia Has Inčukalns Storage
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) warns that a harsh winter combined with supply disruptions could leave the EU short of up to 15% of its natural gas. Latvia faces a lower risk of physical shortage, but price rises could still affect heating bills.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) published its outlook for the 2026/2027 winter season on Thursday, 8 October. It warns that if a harsh winter coincides with gas supply disruptions, the European Union could face a shortfall of up to 15%. This matters for Latvian residents too, as market swings may affect heating costs.
Lower stocks than last year
According to the report, EU gas storage sites were 72% full on 1 October, compared with 83% at the same point last year. That could become a problem if prolonged cold or unexpected supply interruptions occur. Experts modelled several scenarios; in the most adverse case, consumption would need to be cut or a supply gap of 12–15% covered.
The situation in Latvia
Latvia has the Inčukalns underground gas storage facility, which serves the entire Baltic region. In early September, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, visiting the site, said the stored volume was enough for Latvian consumers during the heating season. At that time the facility held about 11 terawatt-hours (TWh) of gas, while Latvia's total consumption in 2025 was 8.7 TWh. However, the stocks are not intended solely for Latvia. Even without a physical shortage, higher prices in Europe could raise gas costs and, in some cases, heating bills.
Why the risk is growing
Europe increasingly relies on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports after abandoning most Russian pipeline gas. Supply restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global LNG is shipped, have intensified competition with Asian buyers. On Thursday the European benchmark price on the Dutch TTF exchange fluctuated around €80 per megawatt-hour, almost three times the level before the conflict escalated in Iran. ENTSOG notes that Central and Eastern European countries with infrastructure constraints may be especially vulnerable.
The Commission's assessment
The European Commission said on Thursday that the EU gas system is generally flexible enough to meet winter demand: LNG import capacity has grown, supply sources have been diversified and overall consumption has fallen. It acknowledges, however, that stocks will be especially important if a strong cold wave hits Europe in the second half of winter.
