EU's ability to fend off an invasion by 2030 still in doubt, auditors warn
A European Court of Auditors report finds the EU's defence readiness goal for 2030 remains at risk due to fragmented national systems and continued reliance on US suppliers, despite progress since 2022.
The European Court of Auditors (ECA) has published a report concluding that the European Union's ability to respond to a foreign invasion by 2030 remains uncertain. The auditors point to fragmented national defence systems, industrial bottlenecks, and continued dependence on the United States as key obstacles.
Marek Opioła, who led the review, said the EU is far better prepared than before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but reaching genuine defence readiness by the end of the decade remains a difficult challenge. He noted the bloc could still make significant progress by sharply raising defence spending and expanding ammunition production.
Spending rises but gaps persist
Between 2020 and 2025, EU member states increased defence spending by 79%, driven by the Russian threat and efforts to meet Nato spending targets. A pledge to supply Ukraine with one million rounds of ammunition was fulfilled in November 2024, eight months behind schedule.
The ECA warned that insufficient cooperation between governments risks duplicated spending and persistent capability gaps. Though not mentioned in the report, France and Germany's decision to scrap a joint €100bn fighter jet project, after failing to resolve disputes over leadership, illustrates the dysfunction auditors describe.
Reliance on US suppliers
The report highlights tension between urgent battlefield needs and the EU's "Buy European" policy, which aims to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. Between February 2022 and June 2023, 78% of EU governments' defence acquisitions came from outside the bloc, with the US alone accounting for 63%.
This week Ukraine requested an exemption from Buy European rules so it could use the EU's €90bn support loan to purchase US-made Patriot air-defence interceptors, following a summer of intense Russian missile and drone strikes. A European Commission spokesperson said the final decision on granting such a derogation rests with member states.
