Von Foerster's "Doomsday Equation": 13 November Brings No End of the World
In 1960, physicist Heinz von Foerster predicted that Earth's population would reach a critical point on 13 November 2026. The forecast did not come true because population growth slowed.
In 1960, Austrian-born American physicist, mathematician and philosopher Heinz von Foerster published an article in one of the world's leading scientific journals titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November 2026". That date is today, and the planet's end has not arrived. The forecast was recounted by the outlet DoctorPiter.
What the scientist predicted
The article did not promise a literal end of the world: Foerster foresaw neither an asteroid strike nor a natural disaster. He argued that on the stated day the number of people would reach a level at which humanity would effectively destroy itself. In the scientist's words, Earth's population would approach infinity if it kept growing at the same pace as over the previous 2,000 years.
Foerster and his students analysed historical data and concluded that each doubling of the population took less time than the last. From the 17th century to the early 19th century, the number of people rose from 500 million to one billion over 154 years. The next doubling took 123 years, and the one after that only 47. A mathematical model built on this data, known as the "Doomsday Equation", put the critical point at 13 November 2026.
Foerster also disagreed with the then-common forecasts of food or resource shortages. In his view, people's ability to solve problems and develop technology would let them overcome such challenges, so the real problem would be a lack of space. "Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve to death. They will be squeezed to death," the scientist warned.
Why the forecast failed
Until about 1993 the equation gave fairly accurate results, but population growth then slowed and departed from the calculated curve. Foerster did not account for the wider availability of contraception. People moved en masse from the countryside to cities, where a large family was less advantageous. Medical progress and falling infant mortality also played a part, as did the growing number of women gaining an education and building careers.
UN experts currently forecast that Earth's population will keep rising for about 60 more years, to 10.3 billion, and then begin to decline slowly.
