France and Spain face off in World Cup semifinal: Mbappe vs Yamal

The first semifinal of the FIFA World Cup 2026 pits Spain against France on Tuesday in Dallas. The two sides are the highest ranked in Europe and have a storied rivalry. This match is the most anticipated of the tournament as both were pre-tournament favorites.

According to Opta's supercomputer, France has a 42.1% probability of winning in regulation time, while Spain's chances stand at 31.8%. There is a 26.1% likelihood the game goes to extra time.

The semifinal will be held at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with a capacity of 70,649 for this tournament. It is the home of the NFL's Dallas Cowboys.

France and Spain have met 38 times overall, with Spain winning 18, France 13, and 7 draws. Their most recent encounter was in the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinals, where Spain won 5-4, with Yamal scoring twice. At the World Cup, they have faced each other only once: France won 3-1 in the 2006 round of 16.

France's attack is formidable: Mbappe leads the tournament with 8 goals and 3 assists, while Dembele (5 goals) and Olise (5 assists) have been key. Spain's top scorer is Mikel Oyarzabal with 4 goals; Yamal has scored only once so far.

France's strength is their potent attack, though they showed defensive lapses in the group stage. Spain's strength is their solid defense, having conceded just one goal in five matches. However, Spain's attack has been sluggish at times, and Yamal has yet to reach his best form. If the match ends in a draw after regulation time, extra time and potentially penalties will decide the winner.