One year after Turnberry: Transatlantic trade truce remains fragile

A year has passed since European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump shook hands on a trade agreement in Turnberry, Scotland, aiming to resolve weeks of disputes. The deal imposed 15% US tariffs on EU imports while the EU removed duties on most US industrial goods. Europe also pledged €520 billion in US investments and €700 billion in energy purchases by 2028, including LNG, oil, and nuclear products.

However, the agreement failed to ease tensions. Over the past year, Trump repeatedly threatened new tariffs, causing EU lawmakers to freeze ratification. The EU eventually dropped its tariffs on 1 July. On the US side, the Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that the 2025 tariffs were illegal, forcing the White House to adopt new tariffs under a different legal basis. These expire on 24 July unless Congress extends them, which seems unlikely ahead of midterm elections.

Despite the tariff war, EU-US goods and services trade rose by 4.5% to €1.8 trillion in 2025, as companies rushed shipments before tariffs took effect. US importers paid roughly €31 billion in extra duties, though some have been refunded after the Supreme Court ruling, with $81 billion returned globally.

Europe appears on track to meet its investment promises. In early 2025, EU companies had pledged €242 billion in US sectors such as cars, IT, chemicals, and food. The €700 billion energy target is expected to be exceeded; in 2025 alone, EU buyers imported over $250 billion worth of energy. Due to the Iran war and the phase-out of Russian gas, US LNG and oil imports hit record highs, and new nuclear projects are planned with US partners.

Negotiations continue on tariff exemptions. The EU has compiled a list of hundreds of products worth about €150 billion in exports, including Roquefort cheese, olive oil, wines, and spirits, hoping to restore pre-tariff levels. Steel and aluminium remain a sticking point, with US tariffs at 50%. The Commission expects tough talks as the US aims to reshore production and address Chinese overcapacity.

The US is preparing new tariffs based on Section 301 investigations into forced labour and overcapacity. The EU disagrees with the forced labour findings but has signalled it will not object as long as the tariffs stay within the 15% cap set by the Turnberry deal. Additionally, the US is probing German drug pricing, which could lead to punitive tariffs if found unreasonable.