Garisons: Russia will seek new targets as Europe faces period of turbulence

Jānis Garisons, former State Secretary of the Latvian Ministry of Defence and now chairman of the board of naval drone manufacturer Newt21, argues that the world is currently transitioning into a new phase of the international order. The Western-dominated system established after World War II no longer functions as it once did — the role of the United States is shifting, while China is consolidating its position as a global power.

Risk of further escalation

Sharing his assessment on social media, Garisons notes that it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to end the war in Ukraine, since doing so would also mean the collapse of the narrative underpinning its current power structure. He predicts that Moscow will instead look for ways to widen the conflict, potentially beyond Ukraine's borders, targeting the weakest available victims. Among possible scenarios, he points to drone provocations in which Russian unmanned aircraft could be disguised as Ukrainian strikes on NATO territory, aimed at critical infrastructure.

Europe's vulnerability

According to Garisons, Europe is particularly exposed because it has only recently begun rebuilding military capabilities that were not a priority for decades. He believes European politicians still lack understanding of how to respond in a situation where military power has again become a significant tool of international politics. Compounding the problem, he says, is the erosion of Europe's economic competitiveness, which combined with security risks could create additional pressure on European societies.

Ukraine's growing role

Garisons also highlights Ukraine's changing position, noting that the country is increasingly shifting from being a recipient of weapons to becoming a developer of its own military technologies, particularly long-range drone systems — experience that could prove valuable for Europe's own defense. He concludes that the current crisis could become not only a threat but also an opportunity for Europe to regain global political and military weight, though this would require more active, independent action from Europe itself rather than reliance solely on Ukraine or the United States.