George Santos Handed Lifetime Ban From Prediction Market Kalshi

Prediction market platform Kalshi has issued its first lifetime ban in the company's history, barring former US Representative George Santos from the platform and fining him $71,000. Santos was expelled from Congress in 2023 and later served jail time on fraud-related charges.

The case centers on a market asking whether Santos would attend a presidential address to Congress. Santos publicly said he planned to attend, but during the event posted on social media that he was actually stuck at the airport and would not be there. Someone using that information profited roughly $17,000 on the market. Because Kalshi, as a federally regulated financial platform, is required to verify customer identities, it quickly determined that Santos himself had made the money — a violation of rules barring people from betting on events they are personally involved in.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission had already been informed of the incident and separately fined Santos. On the same day Kalshi announced the lifetime ban, it also disclosed penalties against other politicians who had bet on themselves, though those individuals received smaller fines and only temporary suspensions. Santos responded publicly to the ban without much sign of remorse.

A separate, larger case

In a related but distinct case, a Google engineer based in Europe was arrested in May over alleged insider trading on the rival platform Polymarket. He is accused of using information obtained through his job — reportedly knowing in advance who would be the most-searched person of 2025 — to earn more than a million dollars. Unlike Santos, who faced only a fine, the engineer faces criminal charges and has pleaded not guilty, arguing that his activity constituted gambling rather than regulated trading and therefore falls outside US commodities law. A similar defense argument is reportedly being used by another individual charged in a comparable case.