Google's Finnish data centers could push up electricity prices in Estonia

Google is planning a €13 billion investment in large-scale data centers in Finland. Over the next 22 years, these energy-intensive facilities will purchase half of the output from Finland's Loviisa nuclear power plant, reducing the electricity surplus that neighboring countries, including Estonia, have relied on for cheap imports.

Tiit Hõbejõgi, a management board member at Eesti Energia subsidiary Enefit, said rising prices in Finland naturally translate into higher prices in Estonia during periods when it imports Finnish electricity. He noted that Finland's electricity consumption has already grown by roughly 500 megawatts this year compared with 2025, and that, excluding the coldest winter months, Finnish prices have risen by €5 per megawatt-hour over the past year, an increase felt in Estonia as well.

Without new generating capacity coming online, electricity prices in Estonia could rise by half a cent per kilowatt-hour. However, additional power generation is expected to enter the Finnish market in the coming years.

Higher volatility, but similar average prices expected

Timo Tatar, CEO of Ignitis Eesti, said Finland's traditional market surplus may shrink somewhat, but the average price is likely to stay close to current levels. Market volatility, though, could increase, bringing more hours of very high prices alongside more hours of very low prices, as rising demand also spurs construction of new power plants, including wind farms.

In recent years, Estonia has sourced 40 percent of its electricity consumption from Finland and other Nordic countries. Elering CEO Kalle Kilk warned that Estonia cannot continue counting on surplus electricity from its neighbors. He said that when consumption rises without a matching increase in supply, both security of supply and prices are affected, and that Estonia must take greater responsibility for ensuring sufficient domestic generation in the future.