Hackers leak alleged Sberbank scenarios for how the Ukraine war may end

A hacker group calling itself "Black Mirror" has published a document dated April 2026 that reportedly contains analysis from Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, assessing eight possible outcomes of the war in Ukraine. The hackers claim the material came from correspondence involving Sberbank chairman German Gref, though outlet Meduza notes the screenshots' authenticity has not been verified. A source in financial markets suggested the document may have been produced by an AI chatbot, with a language check reportedly finding that 83% of the English-language text was AI-generated.

Eight possible scenarios

The lowest-probability scenario (7%) has Russia achieving decisive military dominance and fully seizing four annexed regions, though this would require a new mass mobilization. The most likely scenario (32%), dubbed a "Trump deal," envisions the conflict freezing without a formal peace treaty, partial sanctions relief, and pressure from US President Donald Trump on both sides ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. The second most likely (22%) is a "Korean-style" freeze without any agreement, should Trump lose interest in the conflict. Other scenarios include a prolonged war continuing for another 2-3 years (15%), peace on Russian terms after Western support collapses (12%), a compromise peace involving territorial exchanges (5%), and the least likely scenarios — peace on Ukrainian and European terms (2%) and a group of extraordinary "black swan" events (5%), including use of nuclear weapons, an attack on a nuclear facility, direct conflict with NATO, or regime change in Russia.

The analysts reportedly estimate real public support for Putin at 55-65%, below the officially reported figure of above 70%. The document states that time currently favors Russia, as the Western coalition weakens each month, while Russia's economy, per the bank's assessment, could withstand another 12-18 months of war.