Harri Tiido: Current Era Resembles Pre-World War I Period
Analyst Harri Tiido, referencing historian Odd Arne Westad's work, argues that the global order increasingly mirrors the period before World War I, characterized by great power rivalry, rising nationalism, and escalating trade wars.
Harri Tiido, drawing on Yale historian Odd Arne Westad's book “The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict and Warnings from History,” compares the current geopolitical landscape to the era preceding World War I. Tiido highlights that multiple great powers are competing for dominance in nuclear technology, artificial intelligence, and space exploration. Trade, once increasingly free, is now becoming restricted and fragile, with trade wars erupting between major states.
Nationalism and populism are on the rise, with many feeling that globalization has not benefited them. Protectionism is increasing, tariffs are widely used, and foreigners are often blamed for domestic problems. Immigration and terrorism are key issues. This world ended in a catastrophic war that set back global economic development by decades. Tiido warns that a war between modern superpowers would be even more devastating, even without nuclear weapons.
Westad’s analysis draws parallels between current powers and pre-WWI actors: China is similar to Germany as a rising power; the United States resembles Britain as a declining hegemon unwilling to maintain its status; Russia is akin to the Austro-Hungarian Empire—a crumbling empire trying to remain relevant; India is like France, focused on internal loyalty and regional status. Tiido adds that U.S. military actions against Iran, in coordination with Israel, exemplify unclear strategic goals and arrogant behavior.
China’s Xi Jinping, like Kaiser Wilhelm, shows contempt for democrats and maintains full control over the military. Russia’s Vladimir Putin pursues a new Russian empire based on ultra-conservative nationalism. Tiido concludes that international politics is moving toward a form unseen since the early 20th century, and alternatives to war are needed.
