HUR: Russia aims to seize rest of Donetsk Oblast by year-end, not a peace deal
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) says Russia intends to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year rather than pursue a peace agreement, as Moscow struggles to replenish its forces without a new mobilization.
The deputy chief of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said Russia is not moving toward a peace settlement, and instead is focused on a military objective: seizing the remaining part of Donetsk Oblast that is still under Ukrainian control before the end of the year.
According to the HUR official, Russia's armed forces are increasingly unable to form new combat units without ordering another wave of mobilization. Battlefield losses in June and July exceeded the number of new soldiers signed up through contract recruitment, meaning Russia's military ranks are effectively shrinking rather than growing under the current recruitment model.
This gap between losses and new contract signings suggests that Russia's ability to sustain large-scale offensive operations may increasingly depend on a political decision to launch a fresh mobilization campaign — a step that has historically been politically sensitive inside Russia due to public resistance to compulsory military service.
The HUR assessment indicates that, rather than working toward ending the war through negotiations, Russian leadership currently appears focused on expanding territorial control, particularly around Donetsk Oblast, which has remained one of the most intense areas of fighting throughout the war.
The claim implies that despite international attention on potential peace talks, Moscow's near-term military strategy remains centered on continuing offensive operations to capture additional Ukrainian territory rather than reaching a negotiated end to the conflict this year.
