Houthi-Saudi Military Escalation Challenges Yemen's Relative Calm
For the first time since the 2022 truce, Yemen's Houthi militia and Saudi Arabia have exchanged military strikes, raising fears of a return to full-scale war and worsening the humanitarian crisis.
Recent weeks have seen a sharp rise in military confrontations between Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia, marking the first such exchanges since a truce was agreed in 2022. The escalation began in early July when the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of striking Sanaa airport to prevent their leaders from returning after the funeral of Iran's late supreme leader. Saudi Arabia denied the attack and accused the Houthis of spreading falsehoods.
In response, the Houthis launched strikes on facilities belonging to Saudi oil giant Aramco, forcing the Jazan production site to shut down. This is particularly significant because Jazan has served as an export hub to bypass Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis also announced they would block Saudi-linked commercial vessels from transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, prompting several ships to turn back. Additionally, they claimed to have fired missiles at the oil tanker NCC Ghazal. Saudi Arabia confirmed it had carried out strikes on Houthi targets in response to the threats to Red Sea shipping.
On Thursday, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry announced the formation of a multinational maritime defense coalition to protect vital shipping routes, stating that 14 countries had already confirmed their participation.
Analysts see the current escalation as largely driven by the Houthis. Elham Manea, a political scientist at the University of Zurich, told DW that the Houthis, part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," appear to have abandoned their earlier strategy of staying out of the broader US-Iran conflict. She argued that the group is using the wider confrontation to press unresolved issues with Riyadh, aiming to raise costs for Saudi Arabia and strengthen their bargaining position. In particular, the Houthis want Saudi Arabia to fully lift air and sea blockades on areas under their control, which have not been completely removed despite the 2022 truce.
However, experts caution that a return to full-scale war is not inevitable. Sherwan Hindreen Ali of the conflict monitoring group ACLED noted that the Houthis have left room for de-escalation, pointing to two ships carrying Saudi crude that passed through Bab el-Mandeb without incident on July 23. Michael Stephens of the Royal United Services Institute also suggested that a new war would likely end as before, with heavy costs and eventual negotiations. The Houthis have strengthened their position since 2015, controlling the capital Sanaa and much of the north, while the UN-recognized government holds parts of the south and east.
The renewed fighting compounds Yemen's dire humanitarian situation. Human Rights Watch researcher Niku Jafarnia said that more than half of the population lacks adequate access to basic food needs, and there is a real risk that warring parties will again weaponize civilians' basic needs.
